China's Strategic Positioning in the Global Aluminum Industry Landscape
At a pivotal moment in the global aluminum industry’s rapid development, China stands at a critical juncture of industrial transformation and upgrading. According to the latest statistics from the International Aluminium Institute (IAI), global primary aluminum production reached 35.84 million metric tons in the first half of 2024, marking a 3.9% increase compared to the same period in 2023. Among this, Mainland China maintained its dominant position with an overwhelming 59.3% share of global production—far surpassing the Middle East (8.7%) and other Asian countries (6.7%).
Seizing this strategic window of opportunity, the Chinese government released the Implementation Plan for the High-Quality Development of the Aluminum Industry (2025–2027) earlier this year, outlining a clear strategic roadmap for the aluminum sector’s high-quality development over the next three years.
Green Transformation Becomes a Global Consensus
Global Market Exhibits Robust Growth Momentum
The global aluminum market is entering a golden era of development, with its market size projected to surge from USD 199.7 billion in 2024 to USD 374.1 billion by 2035, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.87%. According to a report by the International Aluminium Institute, global aluminum demand is expected to soar by nearly 40% by 2030—driven primarily by strategic emerging sectors such as transportation, construction, and renewable energy.
Carbon Neutrality Wave Reshaping Industry Ecosystem
The global aluminum industry is undergoing an unprecedented wave of green transformation. China has announced that, starting in 2024, the steel, cement, and aluminum sectors will be officially included in the national carbon trading system. During the 2024–2026 transition period, companies will receive free carbon emission allowances, with the quota mechanism tightening progressively from 2027 onward. Notably, China’s green aluminum certification system is expected to certify approximately 2.75 million metric tons of green aluminum products in 2024—accounting for 7% of total industry output—signaling an accelerated shift toward sustainable development across the sector.
Key Highlights of the “Implementation Plan for the High-Quality Development of the Aluminum Industry (2025–2027)”
Strengthening Resource Security: Building a Self-Reliant and Controllable Supply Chain
The plan sets a clear target to increase domestic bauxite reserves by 3%–5% by 2027, while pushing recycled aluminum output past the milestone of 15 million metric tons. Notably, it emphasizes the high-level development and utilization of coal-associated bauxite deposits in Shanxi and Henan provinces, aiming to establish 1–2 demonstration mines for integrated coal–bauxite extraction. It also stresses the importance of enhanced bauxite exploration, strict implementation of pollution prevention, and ecological restoration in mining areas, ensuring that resource advantages are consolidated without compromising environmental integrity.
Industrial Structure Adjustment: Moving Away from Extensive Growth
Cautious Expansion of Alumina Projects
The plan stipulates that no new alumina capacity shall be added in key air pollution control regions. All new projects must meet stringent energy consumption benchmarks, aligning with advanced levels of mandatory energy consumption limits.Optimization of Electrolytic Aluminum Capacity Layout
Upholding a firm cap on total electrolytic aluminum capacity, the plan mandates that any new replacement projects must meet technical standards such as AC power consumption not exceeding 13,000 kWh/ton. It encourages capacity migration to regions rich in clean energy to facilitate orderly, low-carbon development.Technological Innovation: Seizing the Strategic High Ground
Technological innovation is defined as the core driver of high-quality industry development. The plan prioritizes breakthroughs in low-carbon smelting and precision processing. In response to growing demand from strategic emerging sectors—such as aerospace, new energy vehicles, and electronics—it promotes the R&D and industrial application of high-strength, high-toughness, and corrosion-resistant aluminum alloys.
Green Development: Addressing Global Climate Challenges
The plan outlines ambitious green development targets: by 2027, over 30% of electrolytic aluminum capacity must reach benchmark energy efficiency levels, and the use of clean energy should also exceed 30%. Regarding clean energy substitution, it focuses on replacing fossil fuels in energy-intensive processes such as alumina calcination and anode baking, and explicitly prohibits the construction of new captive coal-fired power units.
Digital Transformation: Embracing the Era of Smart Manufacturing
The plan mandates full implementation of the Raw Materials Industry Digital Transformation Work Plan (2024–2026) and the systematic development of digital transformation roadmaps across the aluminum industry chain. It places particular emphasis on the creation of AI models tailored to the aluminum sector, promoting the deep integration of AI technologies into exploration, mining, smelting, and material preparation throughout the industrial chain.
Regional Development Layout: Fostering Industrial Clusters Based on Local Strengths
Western Region: Establishing Green, Low-Carbon Production Bases
The plan encourages major electrolytic aluminum production areas—such as Shandong, Inner Mongolia, and Xinjiang—to actively promote short-process integrated technologies that directly use molten aluminum as raw material for manufacturing various processed products. The goal is to build internationally competitive supply bases for aluminum billets and semi-finished materials.
Eastern Region: Building High-End Processing Industry Clusters
Strong support is extended to key aluminum processing regions like Guangdong, Shandong, and Henan to move further downstream along the industrial chain. These areas are expected to accelerate the formation of modern industrial clusters centered on end products, thereby enhancing value-added capabilities and international competitiveness.
Central Region: Advancing the Circular Economy for Recycled Aluminum
The plan actively promotes the in-depth development of high-grade recycled aluminum utilization in Jiangxi, Hubei, Liaoning, Anhui, and Henan. It seeks to foster the integration of recycled aluminum with aluminum processing industries, laying the foundation for a green and circular industrial ecosystem.
Global Perspective: Deepening International Cooperation and Competition
The plan explicitly encourages enterprises to follow market-based principles and strengthen mutually beneficial cooperation with global resource-producing countries. It promotes expanding investment cooperation from bauxite mining to higher value-added activities such as the production of primary aluminum products, thereby enabling deeper integration into global aluminum industry and supply chains.
Tackling Trade Friction Challenges
In response to an increasingly complex international trade environment, the plan emphasizes the need to proactively address various forms of trade friction and to guide the high-level export of advanced aluminum-based materials and products. It also calls for leveraging financial tools such as aluminum and alumina futures to manage risk and provide strong support for enterprises engaged in international operations.
Current Status of Taiwan’s Aluminum Industry
Industry Scale and Structural Characteristics
According to the latest statistics from the Metal Industries Research & Development Centre (MIRDC), Taiwan’s aluminum industry comprises approximately 447 companies, over 90% of which are small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), primarily located in central and southern Taiwan. Structurally, the sector includes about 46 aluminum refining firms, around 240 companies engaged in rolling, extrusion, and wire drawing, and approximately 161 aluminum casting businesses—forming a relatively complete industrial chain.
A Complete Industrial Chain with Upstream Dependency on Imports
Taiwan’s aluminum industry has developed a relatively complete value chain, covering the entire process from alloy ingot production to end-use applications. However, due to the absence of domestic mining and primary aluminum production capabilities, the industry remains heavily reliant on imported raw materials. This upstream dependency poses a core challenge that must be addressed for the industry’s future development.
Because Taiwan lacks indigenous mineral resources and electrolytic aluminum production capacity, the industry has long focused on midstream processing activities such as extrusion, rolling, and casting. Notably, in 2023, China Steel Aluminum Corporation (CSC Aluminum) joined forces with MIRDC and 12 upstream, downstream, and recycling companies to establish a strategic alliance. This initiative aims to integrate local industrial resources, promote recycled aluminum processing, and advance low-carbon manufacturing technologies.
Lessons from International Experience: Insights from the Norwegian Model
Norway’s Experience Offers Valuable Lessons for Taiwan
Norway, like Taiwan, lacks domestic bauxite resources. However, it has secured stable raw material supplies through the overseas strategic expansion of its semi-state-owned aluminum giant, Norsk Hydro. In 2010, Hydro acquired the aluminum assets of Brazilian mining company Vale, significantly boosting its access to bauxite and alumina refining capacity. This move has helped position Norway among the world’s top primary aluminum producers, with an annual output of approximately 1.3 million metric tons.
In addition, Hydro is actively developing a groundbreaking zero-carbon aluminum smelting technology known as HalZero. This process converts alumina into aluminum chloride before electrolysis, during which chlorine and carbon are fully recycled in a closed loop, resulting in only oxygen emissions and zero CO₂ release. The technology is currently in the laboratory and testing phase at Hydro’s Porsgrunn research center, with pilot production expected by 2025 and industrial-scale implementation by 2030. Meanwhile, Hydro is also advancing inert anode and carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies to support decarbonization retrofits of existing facilities.
Strategic Challenges Facing Taiwan
Compared to Norway’s systematic development strategy, Taiwan still lacks a cohesive national-level plan and coordinated advancement framework for the aluminum industry. The depth and breadth of Taiwan’s industrial strategic development remain limited. Identifying a clear role and leveraging competitive advantages within the global wave of green transformation in the aluminum sector will be a critical challenge Taiwan must address for its future industrial development.
