I. Price Trend Review
As of August 28, 2025, aluminum prices on the London Metal Exchange (LME) generally fluctuated within the range of USD 2,550–2,640 per metric ton. Prices declined slightly at the beginning of the month, tested lower levels further in mid-August, but then gradually recovered, closing the month at around USD 2,607–2,615 per metric ton. Overall, the aluminum market in August exhibited a “range-bound consolidation,” reflecting the tug-of-war between market demand and supply forces.
II. Key Factors Influencing Prices
1. Global Inventory Structure
Recently, LME warehouse inventories appeared to increase, but most of this came from off-market stock being transferred onto warrant. Actual available supply remains relatively tight. Compared with the beginning of the year, global aluminum inventories have still decreased by nearly 300,000 tons, indicating that no genuine oversupply has emerged, thereby providing underlying support for prices.
2. Policy Effects in the United States and Europe
Since June, the United States has raised aluminum import tariffs to 50%, which has caused local aluminum premiums to rise significantly. In August, the U.S. Midwest premium once approached USD 1,500 per ton, far higher than in other regions of the world, squeezing profit margins in the beverage and packaging industries. In Europe, concerns about the outflow of scrap aluminum have intensified, and discussions are underway on restricting exports to secure domestic recycled aluminum supply.
3. Developments in the Chinese Market
China remains the key driver of global aluminum demand. In the first seven months of 2025, China imported 2.33 million tons of unwrought aluminum, while bauxite imports rose by more than 30% year-on-year, highlighting the resilience of domestic demand. In addition, China has implemented a cap on primary aluminum production capacity, limiting significant increases in output and preventing a steep decline in aluminum prices.
4. Raw Material Costs and New Capacity
Alumina, the upstream raw material for aluminum, has remained at elevated price levels this year, sustaining cost pressures for smelters. However, new alumina production capacities in Indonesia and India are gradually coming online, which is expected to ease cost pressures in the future and exert some downward influence on aluminum prices.
III. Outlook
In the short term, aluminum prices are expected to remain in the range of USD 2,550–2,650 per ton. On the upside, potential risks include tighter hydropower supply in certain regions of China, adverse weather conditions, geopolitical tensions affecting logistics, or further tightening of trade policies in the United States and Europe—all of which could push prices higher.
On the downside, if global manufacturing momentum weakens further, or if tariff-related premiums begin to ease, coupled with new alumina capacity gradually coming online, aluminum prices may test the lower end of the range.
For the can-making and packaging industries, raw material costs in the near term are still influenced by tariffs and regional premiums. However, in the longer run, steady global demand and the continued development of recycling systems will provide a solid foundation of support for the aluminum market.
IV. Conclusion
Although aluminum prices in August 2025 showed a pattern of range-bound consolidation, the overall market remained in a state of relative supply–demand balance. Looking ahead, price fluctuations will continue to be influenced by policy adjustments and geopolitical developments.
For industry participants, particularly in the can-making and packaging sectors, it is crucial to monitor tariff policies, regional premiums, and energy-related factors. By adopting flexible procurement and inventory strategies, companies can better mitigate risks associated with cost volatility and maintain competitiveness.
